It’s The Economy, Stupid.

…Or Is It?

What the primary elections before the November midterms tell us about the state of politics in America. Or don’t.


The BIG Picture

  • AP analysis: Important counties in swing states have not seen job losses; areas that backed Clinton in 2016 have better job growth than areas that voted for Pres. Trump.
  • Pew Research poll raises question about whether or not jobs are the TOP priority for voters during this particular midterm election.

“Trump is a bigger factor in midterm voting preferences a positive or negative a than any president in more than three decades. “

Pew Research, June 20th 2018. Polling also showed voters want to hear most from candidates about immigration, followed by health care, education, & gun laws.

What To Watch: Aug 7

  • Ohio: Important swing state. President Trump held rally in Ohio on Saturday.
  • In Focus: A special election for Congress. Polls show a traditionally Republican district with a very tight race.
  • Democrats need to flip 24 seats from R to D. Will this be one for them?

A Bipartisan Challenge

Winning control of the House and Senate means Democrats have to fight on Republican turf, and that means talking to Romney-Clinton and Obama-Trump voters. How well they can talk to both at the same time a and how well Republicans do among the same groups a will determine whether we see a blue wave or another case of Democratic despair.” (NYT)


AP Analysis re: midterm elections: "The proportion of people who said the economy was their top priority fell to its lowest level in more than eight years." SmartHER Reminder: Most polls were off in 2016. Let's see what 2018 brings.

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