18.08.07 Election Day and the Economy

August 7, 2018
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It’s The Economy, Stupid.

…Or Is It?

What the primary elections before the November midterms tell us about the state of politics in America. Or don’t.

What To Know

The BIG Picture

  • AP analysis: Important counties in swing states have not seen job losses; areas that backed Clinton in 2016 have better job growth than areas that voted for Pres. Trump.
  • Pew Research poll raises question about whether or not jobs are the TOP priority for voters during this particular midterm election.
“Trump is a bigger factor in midterm voting preferences a positive or negative a than any president in more than three decades. “

Pew Research, June 20th 2018. Polling also showed voters want to hear most from candidates about immigration, followed by health care, education, & gun laws.

What To Watch: Aug 7

  • Ohio: Important swing state. President Trump held rally in Ohio on Saturday.
  • In Focus: A special election for Congress. Polls show a traditionally Republican district with a very tight race.
  • Democrats need to flip 24 seats from R to D. Will this be one for them?

A Bipartisan Challenge

Winning control of the House and Senate means Democrats have to fight on Republican turf, and that means talking to Romney-Clinton and Obama-Trump voters. How well they can talk to both at the same time a and how well Republicans do among the same groups a will determine whether we see a blue wave or another case of Democratic despair.” (NYT)

AP Analysis re: midterm elections: "The proportion of people who said the economy was their top priority fell to its lowest level in more than eight years." SmartHER Reminder: Most polls were off in 2016. Let's see what 2018 brings.

by Jenna Lee,