October 30, 2018
MIDTERM ANOMALY?
On average, ONLY 40% of eligible citizens vote during U.S. midterm elections.
Why 2018 *may* be different.
IMPORTANT CONTEXT:
In recent years, the % of eligible voters who turn out for midterms has declined.
- 2014: 41.9%
- 2006: 47.8%
- 1998: 45.3%
- 1990: 49.3%
- 1982: 51.9%
Analysts expect a big jump in turnout for 3 reasons:
- Turnout tends to jump during a President’s first midterm election.
- Turnout during primary elections increased. Ex: 56% more eligible voters voted in this year’s House primary elections compared to 2014.
- Voter registration skyrocketed (800,00+ new voters – a record vs. 771,321 in 2016).
With Election Day one week away, the number of voters participating in early voting has already broken records in Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Minnesota, Nevada, Tennessee, and Texas.
- Who Votes? Congressional Elections and the American Electorate: 1978a\u00132014: https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/2015/demo/p20-577.pdf
- Turnout in this year”s U.S. House primaries rose sharply, especially on the Democratic side:
www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/10/03/turnout-in-this-years-u-s-house-primaries-rose-sharply-especially-on-the-democratic-side/ - Record 800,000+ People Registered to Vote Ahead of 2018 Midterms: https://nationalvoterregistrationday.org/press-release-2018-biggest-national-voter-registration-day-ever/
- On The Sidelines Of Democracy: Exploring Why So Many Americans Don’t Vote: https://www.npr.org/2018/09/10/645223716/on-the-sidelines-of-democracy-exploring-why-so-many-americans-dont-vote
- Early voter turnout shows very strong interest in 2018 elections: jamiedupree.blog.ajc.com/2018/10/28/early-voter-turnout-shows-very-strong-interest-in-2018-elections/
- The Early Voting Explosion:
https://www.usnews.com/news/the-run/articles/2018-10-22/early-voting-in-some-states-is-rivaling-presidential-turnout
by Jenna Lee,
