World Trade Economy Forecast

October 5, 2022
Aerial view of shipping yard with colorful shipping containers

The global economy faces a multi-pronged crisis. The picture for 2023 has darkened considerably.

Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Director-General of the World Trade Organization. Their latest economic forecast predicts a significant decline in traded goods between countries, pointing to an increased likelihood of a global recession.

Background – What is the World Trade Organization? The WTO, operated out of Switzerland, manages the "global system of trade rules," helps facilitate trade agreements and disputes among countries, and "supports the needs of developing countries" with exports and imports.

Why It Matters: The latest WTO forecast warns of decreased trade growth and expects it to "remain subdued" as the global economy faces "multiple shocks," primarily tied to inflation, the war in Ukraine, increased energy prices, and tightened budgets. Decreased trade between countries tends to slower economic growth and raises the likelihood of a global recession.

"Silver Lining"? Global inflation may have already reached its peak; Inflation across the 20 largest world economies has remained unchanged for three straight months, according to a separate report from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

Sharp Slowdown in Global Trade Points to Possible Recession, Lower Inflation (Wall Street Journal)

by Jenna Lee,

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