Holiday Retail Sales Expected to Top $1 Trillion for First Time  

“American consumers may be cautious in sentiment, yet remain fundamentally strong and continue to drive U.S. economic activity.” 

National Retail Federation President and CEO Matthew Shay upon releasing the group’s annual holiday forecast. For the first time ever, economists expect retail sales to top $1 trillion between November and December.

Why It Matters: While the U.S. economy has experienced shifts in the past year due to factors like tariffs and the federal government shutdown, holiday shopping is still expected to peak on Black Friday, with roughly 70% of holiday shoppers planning to participate. Thanksgiving weekend, according to the NRF, could draw the largest number of shoppers on record. Top items on consumer lists this year include clothing and accessories, gift cards, and toys.  

Also Worth Noting: A recent Intuit report estimates that Americans will spend about $109 billion at small businesses this holiday season — a 44% increase from last year. If supporting small businesses is on your list, you can shop small — and SmartHER — with our SHN gear. 

Learn More:  

• Thanksgiving Weekend Expected to Draw Largest Number of Shoppers on Record (NRF) 
• NRF Expects Holiday Sales to Surpass $1 Trillion for the First Time in 2025 (NRF) 

Origins of the Term “Black Friday”: 

• 1869: “Black Friday” was first used to describe a September stock market panic. 
• 1950s – 1960s: Philadelphia police used the term to describe the chaos that erupted in the city from the influx of holiday shoppers and football fans on the Friday before the Army-Navy game, which was held the Saturday after Thanksgiving. 
• 1960s: Philly retailers started using “Big Friday” to rid the name of negative press – but the new name never caught on. 

By the late 1980s, Black Friday became a nationwide retail and financial phenomenon – then came the knockoffs: 

• Cyber Monday began in 2005. 
• Small Business Saturday started in 2010 as an AmEx ad campaign encouraging shoppers to support local businesses. 

If you’re looking for some good deals, we’ve put together our SmartHER Black Friday favorites HERE.